* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/31/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 58 65 69 72 75 73 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 58 65 69 72 75 73 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 6 6 3 7 5 5 16 15 23 17 20 SHEAR DIR 223 206 176 177 197 105 4 350 330 331 331 338 329 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 133 133 134 137 143 148 149 152 152 149 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 500-300 MB RH 62 60 63 62 62 59 52 50 44 46 48 52 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 4 0 0 0 0 -3 0 1 0 0 7 2 850 MB VORT 27 28 25 13 12 29 33 16 -4 -34 -56 -63 -70 LAND (KM) 1830 1832 1833 1835 1847 1902 1909 1824 1726 1656 1611 1660 1719 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.2 18.0 18.8 19.5 20.9 22.1 23.4 24.5 25.8 27.1 28.7 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 40.1 41.2 42.2 43.2 44.2 45.9 47.5 49.0 50.4 51.8 53.2 54.0 54.6 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 20 22 24 25 24 31 29 25 31 25 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 15 CX,CY: -9/ 11 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 512 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 70 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 27. 35. 42. 46. 48. 50. 51. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 33. 40. 44. 47. 50. 48. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/31/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 108.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.47 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.63 Scaled RI index= 3.94 Prob of RI= 11.0% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)