* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * INVEST 08/31/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 25 31 41 51 59 66 71 76 82 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 25 31 41 51 59 66 71 76 82 SHEAR (KTS) 17 17 14 13 10 11 6 6 8 12 9 11 4 SHEAR DIR 85 88 90 85 70 39 32 328 276 262 253 225 268 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 141 141 142 145 148 152 151 148 145 145 146 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 500-300 MB RH 65 60 65 68 66 66 62 59 54 56 61 59 61 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 3 1 0 1 0 -1 0 2 1 0 0 850 MB VORT 25 22 34 48 57 69 85 90 106 99 114 106 117 LAND (KM) 772 870 972 1082 1193 1381 1567 1650 1655 1682 1559 1394 1245 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.3 9.1 10.1 11.1 12.0 12.9 13.7 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 22.5 23.6 24.6 25.7 26.8 28.8 30.8 32.8 34.9 37.3 40.2 43.2 46.2 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 27 31 32 41 31 31 25 25 25 32 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 250/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ -4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 511 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -3 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 13. 17. 22. 25. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 12. 21. 31. 39. 46. 51. 56. 62. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 3. 5. 12. 21. 31. 39. 46. 51. 56. 62. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/31/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.58 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.84 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)