* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * LEE 08/31/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 45 48 51 52 50 46 40 32 23 15 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 45 48 51 52 50 46 40 32 23 15 SHEAR (KTS) 15 14 14 13 21 32 37 30 25 13 10 3 11 SHEAR DIR 311 334 354 336 329 336 336 347 355 9 38 12 285 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.2 24.1 22.6 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 133 129 126 121 120 118 117 112 104 95 86 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -54.1 -54.4 -53.5 -52.4 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 52 48 47 52 57 49 45 47 54 59 55 44 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 3 -3 -14 -9 1 -6 0 8 -9 -7 -6 3 850 MB VORT -15 -11 -15 -17 -18 -63 -108 -128 -119 -112 -87 -86 -85 LAND (KM) 1887 1792 1700 1602 1507 1327 1180 1107 1089 1026 945 989 1153 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.9 31.8 32.8 33.8 35.8 37.6 38.6 38.9 39.9 41.7 43.7 45.8 LONG(DEG W) 49.9 49.3 48.6 48.1 47.6 46.6 45.7 45.2 45.0 44.5 43.5 41.2 37.9 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 11 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 40/ 13 CX,CY: 8/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 680 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -31 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 21. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -15. -18. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. -18. -21. -22. -23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 16. 14. 11. 6. -1. -11. -18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 10. 13. 16. 17. 15. 11. 5. -3. -12. -20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) LEE 8/31/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.67 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 98.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.65 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.61 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 4.44 Prob of RI= 17.9% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)