* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/31/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 49 57 64 69 73 76 76 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 49 57 64 69 73 76 76 SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 11 9 13 17 SHEAR DIR 214 191 200 223 131 158 86 300 356 313 331 312 338 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 134 135 138 142 148 152 154 155 157 155 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 57 58 61 58 58 57 51 48 48 43 43 47 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 2 2 0 -1 -1 0 1 3 1 4 6 6 850 MB VORT 30 26 13 7 11 29 18 -3 -12 -44 -78 -89 -84 LAND (KM) 1797 1785 1786 1802 1827 1853 1768 1641 1525 1444 1425 1443 1476 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 18.0 18.8 19.5 20.2 21.4 22.4 23.2 24.2 25.3 26.7 28.0 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 41.6 42.9 44.1 45.1 46.0 47.6 49.3 50.8 52.4 53.9 55.2 56.3 57.1 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 25 24 28 27 34 35 31 25 30 27 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 16 CX,CY: -11/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 621 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 58 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 26. 34. 40. 46. 49. 52. 53. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 32. 39. 44. 48. 51. 51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/31/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.50 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 108.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 3.94 Prob of RI= 11.0% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)