* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/31/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 31 39 49 55 60 63 67 68 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 31 39 49 55 60 63 67 68 SHEAR (KTS) 17 16 13 12 11 11 8 4 9 11 12 16 14 SHEAR DIR 72 77 77 69 64 36 17 302 301 294 292 291 294 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 142 143 145 146 149 151 152 152 151 151 149 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.7 -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -54.3 -53.2 -53.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 500-300 MB RH 61 63 64 60 57 61 60 60 56 58 58 62 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 3 2 1 3 0 0 0 -5 1 1 8 9 850 MB VORT 0 8 18 29 36 50 77 103 84 79 79 64 36 LAND (KM) 893 1009 1129 1246 1366 1577 1520 1464 1477 1492 1339 1217 1132 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.2 8.8 9.3 10.1 10.9 11.8 12.6 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 23.7 24.9 26.1 27.3 28.5 30.7 32.9 35.0 37.2 39.5 41.9 44.4 47.0 HEAT CONTENT 25 31 32 34 47 42 31 35 31 32 31 34 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 255/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 561 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 13. 17. 22. 25. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 28. 35. 42. 45. 48. 50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 19. 29. 35. 40. 44. 47. 48. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/31/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.61 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.05 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 4.40 Prob of RI= 16.8% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)