* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * LEE 09/01/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 37 37 37 35 34 32 30 30 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 37 37 37 35 34 32 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 11 16 19 15 19 16 9 7 9 15 15 SHEAR DIR 322 358 339 331 344 330 345 347 348 310 272 282 304 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 131 129 127 125 122 121 121 120 119 118 118 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 6 6 7 8 7 6 5 6 500-300 MB RH 50 52 54 53 50 43 39 38 39 40 41 50 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 -3 -10 -12 -1 -1 -3 1 1 -7 -1 2 0 850 MB VORT -16 -22 -21 -25 -30 -69 -84 -91 -69 -81 -82 -79 -38 LAND (KM) 1797 1687 1578 1506 1433 1323 1209 1160 1135 1075 974 925 901 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.9 32.9 33.6 34.2 35.1 36.1 36.5 36.7 37.2 38.1 38.5 38.7 LONG(DEG W) 49.3 49.0 48.7 48.8 48.9 49.5 49.8 50.1 50.3 50.6 50.8 51.1 51.3 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 8 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 35/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 703 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -56 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. 19. 21. 23. 25. 24. 23. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 2. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 0. 0. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) LEE 9/01/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 27.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.48 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 101.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.68 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.67 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 4.12 Prob of RI= 13.2% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)