* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/01/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 50 58 65 68 72 75 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 50 58 65 68 72 75 74 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 3 7 11 4 4 10 5 13 9 16 18 SHEAR DIR 206 209 202 141 137 130 140 321 323 327 339 346 7 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 137 137 139 145 151 152 154 154 155 154 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 57 59 58 59 53 53 46 43 42 39 42 42 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 3 1 1 4 0 2 850 MB VORT 19 6 1 9 23 27 10 -17 -38 -84 -97 -108 -83 LAND (KM) 1741 1739 1751 1779 1809 1794 1698 1598 1531 1479 1505 1528 1585 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.2 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.6 22.8 23.9 25.1 26.3 27.7 28.8 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 42.8 44.0 45.1 46.0 46.8 48.5 50.1 51.5 52.8 54.2 55.1 56.0 56.6 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 26 27 29 32 35 32 27 29 26 25 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 564 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 62 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 27. 35. 41. 45. 49. 51. 52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 25. 33. 40. 43. 47. 50. 49. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/01/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 110.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.76 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.47 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.08 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.38 Scaled RI index= 3.83 Prob of RI= 9.6% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)