* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * LEE 09/01/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 28 29 29 30 30 32 36 40 41 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 28 29 29 30 30 32 36 40 41 SHEAR (KTS) 14 11 11 13 8 14 16 11 8 5 11 14 17 SHEAR DIR 3 7 348 359 357 318 338 358 316 324 286 316 321 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 133 132 131 127 126 125 123 122 120 118 115 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 4 500-300 MB RH 49 47 47 45 42 39 37 38 41 46 51 48 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -8 -9 -11 -4 -2 -4 -1 0 -5 -5 0 1 850 MB VORT -31 -30 -29 -30 -37 -51 -77 -70 -68 -50 -49 -19 -9 LAND (KM) 1652 1599 1547 1508 1469 1380 1309 1250 1193 1115 1031 935 852 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.4 32.9 33.3 33.6 34.4 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.7 37.5 38.5 39.6 LONG(DEG W) 51.2 51.0 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.8 51.2 51.6 51.9 51.9 51.4 50.5 49.1 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 5 4 3 4 4 3 3 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 904 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -66 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 24. 25. 25. 24. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 11. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) LEE 9/01/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.78 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.50 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 103.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.70 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.68 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 3.74 Prob of RI= 8.7% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)