* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/01/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 57 63 66 69 71 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 57 63 66 69 71 70 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 5 9 7 5 10 7 13 14 17 17 18 SHEAR DIR 186 214 147 142 164 168 265 331 289 320 320 346 329 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 135 137 142 148 151 152 152 151 149 148 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 500-300 MB RH 59 59 57 53 54 45 42 43 39 46 46 44 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 0 0 1 850 MB VORT 13 21 32 43 40 15 -16 -40 -75 -104 -113 -119 -103 LAND (KM) 1760 1791 1831 1866 1892 1828 1720 1632 1599 1630 1693 1762 1782 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.3 20.1 20.8 21.5 22.8 24.1 25.5 26.9 28.4 29.5 30.2 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 43.9 44.8 45.7 46.5 47.2 48.8 50.3 51.9 53.2 54.1 54.4 54.2 53.9 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 27 26 25 30 30 26 31 28 19 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 554 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 26. 34. 39. 43. 45. 47. 47. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 32. 38. 41. 44. 46. 45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/01/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.76 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.10 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.26 Scaled RI index= 3.66 Prob of RI= 7.7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)