* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * LEE 09/01/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 34 35 36 36 35 35 34 29 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 34 35 36 36 35 35 34 29 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 8 5 7 12 13 7 6 7 13 15 20 SHEAR DIR 4 338 357 22 322 336 349 355 347 240 247 264 258 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.7 24.8 23.6 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 135 134 132 127 124 121 119 116 109 100 99 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 5 3 1 0 500-300 MB RH 44 43 42 41 41 43 40 42 45 45 48 48 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -3 -6 -1 0 -1 0 3 1 -3 -1 -9 3 850 MB VORT -25 -20 -11 -24 -35 -54 -70 -61 -69 -64 -71 -56 -53 LAND (KM) 1662 1633 1605 1549 1493 1350 1227 1121 986 875 803 787 887 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.1 32.3 32.8 33.3 34.6 35.7 36.7 38.0 39.2 40.4 41.7 42.9 LONG(DEG W) 51.4 51.5 51.6 51.7 51.7 51.6 51.7 51.3 50.7 49.8 48.2 46.1 43.2 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 737 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -27 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. -1. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) LEE 9/01/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 105.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.83 Scaled RI index= 4.28 Prob of RI= 15.1% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)