* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/01/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 51 59 66 72 77 80 84 86 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 51 59 66 72 77 80 84 86 SHEAR (KTS) 4 6 11 11 9 12 1 4 7 4 9 2 9 SHEAR DIR 167 111 128 139 141 160 184 176 311 324 338 4 262 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 139 141 142 148 152 155 157 157 155 149 135 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 10 9 500-300 MB RH 54 53 49 49 48 42 43 42 43 46 49 55 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 -2 -1 -1 2 5 6 8 10 2 1 2 850 MB VORT 11 21 26 30 17 0 -30 -45 -67 -58 -44 3 36 LAND (KM) 1711 1732 1752 1748 1717 1597 1453 1358 1305 1337 1442 1382 1183 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.2 22.4 23.6 25.0 26.4 28.1 29.9 31.9 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 45.5 46.5 47.4 48.3 49.1 51.0 52.9 54.7 56.5 58.1 59.2 59.8 59.6 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 33 37 37 38 33 33 31 22 17 25 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 528 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 30. 38. 44. 49. 51. 55. 58. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 29. 36. 42. 47. 50. 54. 56. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/01/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.57 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.30 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 32.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.16 Scaled RI index= 4.01 Prob of RI= 11.8% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)