* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/01/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 42 52 62 69 73 77 82 86 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 42 52 62 69 73 77 82 86 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 17 16 11 10 2 3 12 11 12 6 10 SHEAR DIR 45 42 33 36 29 27 5 23 351 359 351 8 339 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 148 149 151 154 155 155 154 154 157 162 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 55 58 60 64 63 64 63 62 64 64 62 60 62 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -6 -2 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -10 -6 -2 0 0 850 MB VORT 21 22 24 20 31 59 72 95 99 107 104 102 108 LAND (KM) 1524 1544 1482 1417 1361 1312 1346 1229 1080 988 928 931 875 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.5 9.2 9.9 10.9 11.9 12.8 13.8 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 30.1 31.2 32.3 33.5 34.6 36.9 39.2 41.7 44.3 46.9 49.4 51.8 54.1 HEAT CONTENT 44 45 44 35 38 41 40 38 46 54 58 86 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 593 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 28. 38. 45. 50. 54. 59. 63. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 27. 37. 44. 48. 52. 57. 61. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/01/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.67 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.77 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.36 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.29 Scaled RI index= 4.54 Prob of RI= 20.3% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)