* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * LEE 09/01/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 32 34 34 34 33 31 27 24 20 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 32 34 34 34 33 31 27 24 20 SHEAR (KTS) 5 10 12 14 12 19 11 10 12 15 23 25 N/A SHEAR DIR 292 318 317 320 320 325 340 298 280 265 262 274 9999 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.8 24.5 22.6 22.1 21.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 132 131 128 125 121 117 106 95 92 89 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 1 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 43 45 45 45 46 45 48 46 47 42 46 52 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -5 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 4 0 -10 -5 N/A 850 MB VORT -21 -28 -41 -49 -49 -71 -56 -72 -76 -96 -109 -115 N/A LAND (KM) 1617 1555 1493 1438 1382 1250 1039 880 735 670 713 875 N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.8 33.3 33.8 34.3 35.5 37.4 38.9 40.5 41.9 43.4 44.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.4 51.6 51.7 51.8 51.8 51.7 51.7 51.2 49.9 48.0 45.3 42.1 N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 4 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 654 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -41 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. 27. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. -22. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. -2. -6. -7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -6. -10. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) LEE 9/01/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 27.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.48 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 102.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.69 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.80 Scaled RI index= 4.04 Prob of RI= 12.2% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)