* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FOURTEEN 09/01/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 41 48 54 59 64 67 69 72 74 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 41 48 54 59 64 67 69 72 74 SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 11 14 13 14 8 10 8 13 11 13 11 SHEAR DIR 143 143 145 141 142 174 178 246 303 290 316 305 256 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 143 145 148 152 154 154 157 159 159 155 146 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 500-300 MB RH 51 46 46 45 43 38 37 33 39 42 50 53 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 0 7 0 3 12 -5 -2 1 0 9 850 MB VORT 20 31 36 26 12 0 -38 -60 -65 -71 -62 -17 15 LAND (KM) 1728 1710 1674 1612 1556 1419 1279 1184 1133 1150 1233 1403 1317 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.7 22.6 23.6 24.5 25.8 27.4 29.7 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 46.2 47.5 48.7 49.8 50.8 52.6 54.3 55.8 57.0 58.0 58.8 59.6 60.2 HEAT CONTENT 28 33 45 44 40 45 53 56 48 43 27 18 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 542 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -7 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 14. 18. 20. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 26. 31. 36. 39. 40. 43. 46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 11. 18. 24. 29. 34. 37. 39. 42. 44. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FOURTEEN 9/01/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.14 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 4.01 Prob of RI= 11.9% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)