* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/01/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 37 42 47 53 57 61 64 66 69 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 37 42 47 53 57 61 64 66 69 SHEAR (KTS) 12 16 17 17 22 16 16 6 11 6 13 11 14 SHEAR DIR 62 49 57 41 52 36 46 23 353 324 351 301 298 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 151 152 154 155 155 154 151 148 149 154 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -52.5 -54.0 -52.1 -52.9 -52.0 -52.7 -51.4 -51.9 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 500-300 MB RH 59 61 67 69 72 70 68 66 62 64 63 60 60 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 0 2 4 -1 2 0 2 10 -8 5 6 850 MB VORT -11 -8 -4 9 13 26 34 58 65 83 86 76 68 LAND (KM) 1409 1316 1229 1175 1126 1119 1172 1217 1199 1202 1221 1267 1246 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 7.7 7.3 7.1 6.9 7.1 7.9 9.2 10.9 12.5 14.3 16.0 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 33.5 34.6 35.7 36.6 37.4 38.8 40.1 41.4 42.8 44.5 46.6 49.0 51.8 HEAT CONTENT 36 41 42 49 59 64 55 46 41 34 42 61 89 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 514 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 64 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 25. 31. 36. 40. 43. 45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 12. 17. 22. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 44. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/01/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 124.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.89 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.72 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.90 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.76 Scaled RI index= 5.49 Prob of RI= 53.1% is 4.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)