* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * LEE 09/02/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 35 32 29 26 23 19 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 35 32 29 26 23 19 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 14 12 13 14 6 12 19 26 32 30 N/A SHEAR DIR 320 306 319 320 316 340 295 262 254 251 261 262 9999 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.2 24.7 22.0 19.8 20.1 19.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 134 131 128 124 121 108 92 84 84 83 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 3 1 0 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 43 43 46 45 44 44 43 43 41 43 49 54 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -1 0 -1 -1 1 1 7 0 -2 -3 2 N/A 850 MB VORT -16 -26 -36 -42 -52 -57 -55 -73 -84 -92 -96 -85 N/A LAND (KM) 1591 1546 1501 1423 1345 1157 924 720 574 547 699 939 N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.8 33.2 33.9 34.6 36.3 38.4 40.3 42.0 43.5 45.0 46.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.0 52.2 52.4 52.5 52.5 52.4 52.4 51.7 50.1 47.8 44.4 40.5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 4 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 718 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. 20. 24. 27. 30. 31. 28. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -17. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -21. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 0. -3. -7. -9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. -11. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) LEE 9/02/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 102.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.69 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.56 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 6.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.22 Prob of RI= 14.5% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)