* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FOURTEEN 09/02/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 44 51 56 61 65 68 71 74 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 44 51 56 61 65 68 71 74 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 8 10 10 2 1 10 12 12 10 11 11 SHEAR DIR 137 134 131 142 162 224 210 308 345 345 13 339 248 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 141 143 146 151 152 155 155 155 152 145 133 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 500-300 MB RH 48 44 42 40 38 33 36 36 39 44 51 53 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 0 2 4 0 2 8 3 0 -1 -2 -1 850 MB VORT 20 24 21 5 -2 -38 -59 -86 -74 -66 -35 33 69 LAND (KM) 1770 1775 1735 1708 1650 1527 1447 1412 1439 1507 1605 1438 1215 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.6 22.1 23.3 24.5 25.9 27.5 29.0 30.4 32.2 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 47.0 47.9 48.7 49.6 50.4 52.0 53.4 54.7 55.8 56.6 57.0 57.5 58.1 HEAT CONTENT 30 35 37 38 36 37 27 31 26 24 12 17 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 490 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 22. 27. 32. 37. 39. 42. 46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 21. 26. 31. 35. 38. 41. 44. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FOURTEEN 9/02/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.60 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 111.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.77 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.08 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.46 Scaled RI index= 3.99 Prob of RI= 11.7% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)