* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/02/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 40 45 50 53 58 61 62 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 40 45 50 53 58 61 62 64 SHEAR (KTS) 14 16 18 20 18 16 13 14 16 14 13 24 18 SHEAR DIR 66 57 55 55 53 46 47 27 16 338 307 307 293 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 152 152 152 154 155 157 157 152 148 152 154 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -52.5 -53.2 -53.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 500-300 MB RH 63 67 69 73 70 69 64 66 69 72 63 63 64 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 2 4 3 1 1 8 8 0 -1 4 23 850 MB VORT -16 -8 3 19 33 46 55 57 62 88 70 62 58 LAND (KM) 1268 1188 1115 1072 1037 1013 1027 1013 1025 1088 1184 1315 1305 LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.6 7.3 8.6 10.5 12.5 14.7 16.9 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 35.3 36.4 37.4 38.3 39.2 40.7 42.0 43.2 44.6 46.2 48.0 50.1 52.3 HEAT CONTENT 41 47 60 64 70 62 60 54 48 45 46 73 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 477 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 82 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 27. 33. 37. 39. 41. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 33. 36. 37. 39. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/02/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.71 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.91 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.69 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.80 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.82 Scaled RI index= 5.27 Prob of RI= 45.9% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)