* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FOURTEEN 09/02/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 43 50 55 61 67 70 73 74 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 43 50 55 61 67 70 73 74 SHEAR (KTS) 10 7 6 6 2 2 8 13 13 14 12 15 12 SHEAR DIR 138 125 137 154 201 10 315 357 349 6 347 7 354 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 143 145 148 151 154 154 152 149 146 141 132 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 500-300 MB RH 49 45 43 42 40 41 38 44 45 51 49 49 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 1 1 0 2 9 0 -2 -5 -2 -1 -1 850 MB VORT 30 19 4 1 -23 -64 -71 -51 -44 -6 -4 18 7 LAND (KM) 1770 1740 1709 1680 1628 1562 1502 1520 1600 1629 1541 1415 1260 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.9 21.4 22.1 22.8 24.4 26.0 27.8 29.5 30.8 31.6 32.9 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 47.7 48.6 49.4 50.1 50.8 52.1 53.7 55.0 55.8 56.3 56.5 56.5 56.3 HEAT CONTENT 34 37 38 36 36 31 29 26 21 10 11 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 533 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 28. 33. 39. 42. 44. 46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 25. 31. 37. 40. 44. 44. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FOURTEEN 9/02/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 113.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.01 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.28 Scaled RI index= 3.82 Prob of RI= 9.6% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)