* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * INVEST 09/02/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 48 51 54 57 60 65 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 48 51 54 57 60 65 SHEAR (KTS) 15 16 13 13 10 15 18 24 23 21 17 19 17 SHEAR DIR 72 74 73 79 68 55 57 43 35 31 14 350 307 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 154 154 154 157 160 160 155 149 152 154 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -52.9 -53.8 -52.6 -53.7 -52.4 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 500-300 MB RH 56 58 59 63 64 64 65 67 76 71 68 65 64 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 0 1 4 5 3 6 -7 2 2 4 850 MB VORT 14 27 30 36 42 62 72 78 79 70 67 59 58 LAND (KM) 1258 1183 1119 1083 1018 947 884 807 831 950 1106 1297 1335 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 7.5 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.6 6.8 7.8 9.4 11.7 14.2 16.8 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 36.6 37.7 38.8 39.7 40.6 42.2 43.6 44.9 46.0 47.2 48.6 50.3 52.0 HEAT CONTENT 36 50 64 64 62 63 63 62 69 54 51 74 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 514 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 38 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -20. -22. -23. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 20. 23. 26. 29. 32. 35. 40. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 20. 23. 26. 29. 32. 35. 40. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/02/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 127.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)