* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FOURTEEN 09/02/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 55 61 67 71 76 79 82 83 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 55 61 67 71 76 79 82 83 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 6 3 2 4 11 13 11 9 8 3 16 SHEAR DIR 148 155 146 175 356 51 357 12 10 31 29 224 243 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.3 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 148 151 152 154 154 154 151 148 141 133 127 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 500-300 MB RH 45 41 43 40 39 37 41 45 47 50 47 43 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 1 4 2 1 0 0 -1 -4 -1 2 -5 850 MB VORT 15 0 -1 -20 -42 -28 -60 -49 -45 0 41 58 66 LAND (KM) 1693 1663 1606 1551 1506 1481 1527 1589 1652 1532 1373 1239 1135 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.6 24.4 26.2 27.9 29.3 30.4 31.6 33.0 34.3 35.4 LONG(DEG W) 49.5 50.3 51.0 51.9 52.7 54.1 55.0 55.7 56.2 56.7 57.2 57.4 57.4 HEAT CONTENT 39 36 37 35 30 29 26 22 13 12 16 12 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 536 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -21 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 28. 34. 38. 43. 45. 48. 49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 26. 32. 37. 41. 44. 47. 48. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FOURTEEN 9/02/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.95 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.67 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.39 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.14 Scaled RI index= 4.35 Prob of RI= 16.0% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)