* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/02/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 57 65 70 74 77 80 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 57 65 70 74 77 80 82 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 7 4 4 8 10 15 20 16 20 15 16 SHEAR DIR 31 25 34 85 73 89 66 70 55 55 26 31 3 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 152 152 155 159 160 162 162 162 162 160 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 49 51 53 59 60 60 60 62 69 66 61 59 61 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -4 0 -1 0 0 2 3 0 -1 1 6 2 850 MB VORT 71 75 84 88 95 97 95 99 108 101 92 76 62 LAND (KM) 1588 1556 1540 1498 1367 1120 904 764 690 716 831 869 914 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.5 10.8 11.7 13.1 14.8 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 35.0 36.5 37.9 39.4 40.8 43.5 46.2 48.4 50.2 51.6 52.9 54.1 55.2 HEAT CONTENT 29 25 26 31 34 46 61 59 70 74 84 93 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 600 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 31 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 22. 32. 40. 46. 51. 53. 56. 59. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 33. 40. 45. 49. 52. 55. 57. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/02/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.71 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.91 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.34 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.49 Scaled RI index= 4.69 Prob of RI= 24.9% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)