* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/02/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 62 66 74 79 82 83 84 84 81 79 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 62 66 74 79 82 83 84 84 81 79 SHEAR (KTS) 6 3 3 4 7 9 17 18 20 14 11 32 23 SHEAR DIR 193 210 268 315 339 323 345 352 8 357 313 268 286 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.3 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 151 152 152 154 154 152 151 146 133 126 125 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -54.0 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 7 4 5 500-300 MB RH 42 43 41 41 44 48 53 55 58 61 56 41 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 4 5 4 5 5 0 -1 0 -5 10 13 11 850 MB VORT 11 6 -13 -25 -24 -50 -43 -40 -6 25 57 28 28 LAND (KM) 1670 1586 1510 1486 1472 1517 1569 1616 1662 1541 1239 1088 1029 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.4 23.1 24.1 25.0 27.0 28.8 29.7 30.3 31.7 34.3 35.7 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 50.1 51.1 52.1 52.8 53.4 54.3 55.4 55.8 55.9 56.3 57.4 57.8 57.8 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 37 32 25 30 24 20 14 12 12 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 678 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -13 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 3. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 6. 4. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 28. 33. 36. 38. 40. 40. 38. 36. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 12. 17. 21. 29. 34. 37. 38. 39. 39. 36. 34. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/02/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.95 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 104.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 86.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.83 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 4.84 Prob of RI= 31.3% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)