* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/03/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 58 63 69 74 78 81 84 86 86 84 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 58 63 69 74 78 81 84 86 86 84 SHEAR (KTS) 5 2 4 7 7 15 13 13 10 6 7 14 29 SHEAR DIR 210 264 342 346 340 337 355 352 31 341 311 272 252 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 152 152 154 154 151 148 143 139 135 131 124 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 5 500-300 MB RH 42 39 42 45 44 53 55 59 63 59 57 56 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 2 3 5 5 1 0 -2 -2 -2 0 -5 -2 850 MB VORT 4 -16 -29 -30 -23 -52 -34 -21 29 50 44 41 16 LAND (KM) 1575 1525 1485 1487 1506 1580 1672 1575 1468 1382 1311 1187 1031 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.8 23.7 25.0 26.2 28.5 30.2 31.4 32.3 33.1 33.8 34.8 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 51.1 51.9 52.6 53.2 53.8 54.9 55.6 56.2 56.6 56.8 56.9 57.5 58.2 HEAT CONTENT 38 38 34 26 29 24 16 11 14 14 14 8 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 676 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 18. 19. 20. 19. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 17. 23. 28. 32. 37. 40. 42. 42. 41. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 18. 24. 29. 33. 36. 39. 41. 41. 39. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/03/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.94 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.71 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 106.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.72 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.71 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 5.15 Prob of RI= 41.9% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)