* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/03/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 56 61 65 69 71 75 78 79 79 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 56 61 65 69 71 75 78 79 79 SHEAR (KTS) 3 5 3 7 10 15 16 16 14 12 15 23 23 SHEAR DIR 283 346 4 342 329 347 345 360 347 354 297 292 280 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 154 154 154 152 148 142 137 132 127 125 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 41 43 47 47 50 56 55 64 68 68 56 51 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 2 3 4 6 2 -2 0 0 0 0 -8 0 850 MB VORT -9 -23 -24 -20 -42 -43 -62 -20 3 49 42 49 12 LAND (KM) 1517 1475 1442 1449 1466 1545 1638 1556 1439 1329 1235 1140 1047 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.8 24.6 25.6 26.6 28.5 30.1 31.5 32.6 33.6 34.5 35.5 36.6 LONG(DEG W) 52.0 52.8 53.5 54.1 54.6 55.4 56.0 56.4 56.6 56.9 57.1 56.8 56.1 HEAT CONTENT 38 33 26 26 29 23 16 11 14 14 11 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 710 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 23. 27. 31. 34. 35. 35. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 30. 33. 34. 34. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/03/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 107.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.60 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.63 Scaled RI index= 4.89 Prob of RI= 33.1% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)