* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/03/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 56 61 65 69 71 73 74 73 72 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 56 61 65 69 71 73 74 73 72 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 7 13 16 16 20 11 14 12 30 29 32 SHEAR DIR 315 341 341 316 328 344 347 346 301 281 283 290 296 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 154 155 155 154 148 141 135 131 127 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 4 5 5 500-300 MB RH 40 44 48 47 54 58 63 66 60 55 47 44 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 3 4 2 -2 0 1 2 6 0 0 11 850 MB VORT -24 -31 -25 -40 -53 -48 -17 35 32 25 10 -19 -25 LAND (KM) 1451 1436 1433 1458 1492 1579 1511 1350 1253 1186 1130 1076 1006 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 25.2 26.1 27.1 28.0 29.7 31.6 33.0 33.9 34.6 35.3 36.0 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 53.2 53.9 54.6 55.1 55.6 56.4 57.2 57.7 57.9 57.9 57.7 57.2 56.4 HEAT CONTENT 30 25 30 27 26 19 13 18 14 9 4 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 815 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 24. 26. 29. 30. 30. 28. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. 28. 27. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/03/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.74 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.88 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 5.03 Prob of RI= 37.7% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)