* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/03/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 72 78 83 89 94 99 98 94 90 85 81 V (KT) LAND 60 66 72 78 83 89 94 99 98 94 90 85 81 SHEAR (KTS) 3 4 5 8 8 13 4 12 19 32 34 31 29 SHEAR DIR 322 325 290 316 323 327 351 275 258 249 250 252 252 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.6 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 157 157 155 149 143 137 128 125 125 125 119 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.9 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 5 5 4 4 500-300 MB RH 44 48 50 55 59 61 65 62 55 48 45 40 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 6 8 4 2 0 0 0 -4 6 2 0 -13 850 MB VORT -12 -2 -5 0 1 -4 50 67 103 63 27 -14 -17 LAND (KM) 1413 1393 1388 1442 1505 1534 1383 1268 1158 1073 1002 999 943 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.4 27.3 28.4 29.4 31.2 32.5 33.7 35.0 36.0 36.7 37.5 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 54.4 55.4 56.3 56.8 57.2 57.6 58.1 58.0 57.7 57.3 57.2 55.0 51.4 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 25 24 22 13 20 14 6 2 3 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 15 CX,CY: -9/ 11 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 866 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 27. 32. 38. 37. 35. 31. 27. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 12. 18. 23. 29. 34. 39. 38. 34. 30. 25. 21. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/03/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.76 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 95.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.63 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.90 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.80 Scaled RI index= 5.25 Prob of RI= 45.0% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)