* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/04/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 73 77 82 86 87 84 80 75 68 63 V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 73 77 82 86 87 84 80 75 68 63 SHEAR (KTS) 6 10 10 7 9 9 15 27 34 39 35 31 30 SHEAR DIR 326 325 336 337 333 322 260 250 253 255 255 261 264 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 27.9 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.5 25.0 24.2 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 152 151 141 131 127 126 124 110 104 107 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -53.8 -56.6 -56.9 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 9 8 5 4 2 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 44 46 54 56 56 65 60 54 46 39 36 44 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 3 1 1 0 0 4 -10 6 20 3 -6 -1 850 MB VORT -18 -36 -38 -24 -24 17 58 83 81 29 -66 -79 -69 LAND (KM) 1459 1490 1535 1597 1616 1392 1196 1127 1109 1011 761 738 867 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.7 28.8 29.8 30.8 32.9 34.7 35.6 36.2 37.6 40.0 40.9 40.7 LONG(DEG W) 54.6 55.3 55.9 56.3 56.6 57.0 57.5 56.9 55.5 53.5 51.1 48.6 46.2 HEAT CONTENT 29 25 24 19 10 15 8 6 9 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 745 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 20. 24. 25. 24. 21. 16. 10. 5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 17. 22. 26. 27. 24. 20. 15. 8. 3. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/04/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 93.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.61 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.89 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.85 Scaled RI index= 5.49 Prob of RI= 53.0% is 4.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)