* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/04/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 48 56 62 67 70 71 72 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 48 56 62 67 70 71 72 SHEAR (KTS) 3 6 7 3 4 5 8 9 11 12 8 6 4 SHEAR DIR 80 12 28 63 275 255 243 248 239 260 275 267 222 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 162 162 157 155 155 157 157 157 155 154 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 9 8 7 8 8 9 500-300 MB RH 45 44 45 46 46 51 50 46 43 40 42 43 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 6 2 0 -1 -5 -4 1 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 5 16 15 24 35 30 19 12 11 9 0 -20 -32 LAND (KM) 718 774 830 894 959 1116 1153 1151 1171 1162 1137 1113 1098 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.9 26.4 27.0 27.6 29.1 30.0 30.3 30.1 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 66.6 66.5 66.3 66.2 66.1 66.0 65.4 65.2 65.1 65.6 66.0 66.4 66.7 HEAT CONTENT 51 46 39 35 31 27 30 28 28 30 27 23 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 578 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 12 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 36. 43. 48. 51. 53. 54. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 28. 36. 42. 47. 50. 52. 52. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/04/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.94 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.83 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 143.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.20 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.36 Scaled RI index= 4.70 Prob of RI= 25.3% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)