* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/04/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 68 70 75 76 75 73 72 69 64 60 V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 68 70 75 76 75 73 72 69 64 60 SHEAR (KTS) 14 14 11 12 15 11 26 37 37 30 33 24 23 SHEAR DIR 315 339 343 343 336 310 270 259 258 246 245 254 257 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.4 26.7 26.6 25.9 24.7 23.2 22.9 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 152 151 146 134 126 125 118 108 98 96 100 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -52.7 -53.6 -55.2 -56.8 -56.7 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 8 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 46 53 55 57 58 63 57 48 41 35 35 33 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 -1 0 0 4 11 8 54 3 -34 -18 -4 850 MB VORT -41 -47 -29 -28 -19 36 29 56 56 50 4 -22 -14 LAND (KM) 1498 1549 1608 1648 1526 1302 1108 989 847 743 672 735 919 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.6 29.6 30.7 31.8 34.0 36.1 37.8 39.1 40.3 41.5 42.2 42.6 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 55.4 55.8 56.1 56.4 56.7 55.8 54.1 52.2 50.4 48.8 46.3 43.0 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 21 11 13 13 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 684 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 27 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 16. 16. 14. 13. 10. 6. 1. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 16. 15. 13. 12. 9. 4. 0. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/04/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.71 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 91.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.59 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.68 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.52 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.72 Scaled RI index= 4.82 Prob of RI= 30.2% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)