* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/04/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 54 58 59 62 65 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 54 58 59 62 65 67 SHEAR (KTS) 6 13 12 10 15 21 17 23 20 21 18 18 18 SHEAR DIR 329 345 6 4 354 10 13 21 14 16 4 7 337 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 13 12 13 13 14 13 500-300 MB RH 46 47 46 46 52 56 61 60 60 58 53 52 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 2 -2 0 5 1 0 -1 850 MB VORT 23 18 14 15 16 20 1 -2 2 9 16 13 16 LAND (KM) 859 775 709 662 641 566 334 322 400 359 287 237 113 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.4 12.2 12.9 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.1 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 47.0 48.5 50.0 51.6 53.1 56.0 58.8 61.2 63.3 65.4 67.5 69.5 71.6 HEAT CONTENT 61 59 67 78 73 87 101 92 84 93 120 111 104 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 604 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. 37. 42. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 29. 33. 34. 37. 40. 42. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/04/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 136.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.79 Scaled RI index= 4.92 Prob of RI= 34.1% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)