* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/04/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 49 56 61 66 68 70 70 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 49 56 61 66 68 70 70 SHEAR (KTS) 7 9 3 5 6 2 11 11 16 14 14 17 20 SHEAR DIR 14 27 77 284 321 232 242 218 249 244 239 240 235 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 162 160 155 151 149 151 152 154 154 151 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 7 8 7 8 500-300 MB RH 43 46 46 45 47 54 48 52 46 49 50 52 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 3 0 0 -2 -7 -3 0 1 6 2 0 -2 850 MB VORT 9 6 14 27 13 36 22 41 2 21 -7 7 -23 LAND (KM) 699 755 811 861 913 1024 997 925 854 771 660 557 472 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 26.0 26.5 27.1 27.6 28.7 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.3 31.0 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.2 67.4 67.7 68.1 68.8 69.7 70.8 71.9 72.6 72.9 HEAT CONTENT 55 54 47 37 25 16 20 22 21 18 17 17 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 579 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 7 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 21. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 21. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 36. 42. 47. 49. 51. 52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 29. 36. 41. 46. 48. 50. 50. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/04/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.83 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 142.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.46 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 4.88 Prob of RI= 32.6% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)