* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/04/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 70 72 74 78 78 77 75 73 69 64 60 V (KT) LAND 65 67 70 72 74 78 78 77 75 73 69 64 60 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 13 15 16 13 27 32 36 32 27 24 19 SHEAR DIR 338 344 344 327 329 305 275 270 260 250 257 268 266 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.3 26.7 26.4 25.7 24.8 24.1 24.0 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 151 148 143 133 126 123 116 109 104 103 98 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -54.9 -55.5 -56.8 -56.4 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 10 9 8 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 54 54 57 59 62 60 57 48 41 36 32 29 33 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -1 1 3 6 0 13 25 11 -19 -12 -17 -5 850 MB VORT -37 -24 -21 -27 17 52 52 54 57 45 2 -19 14 LAND (KM) 1536 1594 1658 1568 1459 1302 1152 1000 861 803 812 924 1126 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.4 30.4 31.4 32.4 34.1 36.0 37.7 39.2 40.4 41.2 41.9 42.7 LONG(DEG W) 55.3 55.7 56.1 56.4 56.6 56.3 54.9 52.8 50.4 48.2 46.4 43.6 40.0 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 13 11 14 12 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 628 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 5. 1. -4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 4. -1. -5. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/04/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 84.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.53 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.71 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.77 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 4.92 Prob of RI= 34.0% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)