* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/04/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 48 56 62 67 70 71 72 71 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 48 56 62 67 70 71 72 71 SHEAR (KTS) 9 4 5 5 4 8 11 16 14 13 15 10 11 SHEAR DIR 38 83 253 302 277 234 235 234 230 234 234 234 243 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 162 159 157 154 151 149 151 151 152 149 148 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 11 11 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 500-300 MB RH 47 47 47 48 50 50 48 45 43 46 50 48 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 0 0 -4 -5 -7 -2 1 3 0 -2 0 0 850 MB VORT 12 18 37 28 31 33 27 15 -1 13 14 0 -18 LAND (KM) 803 857 912 966 1021 1069 1010 960 897 798 706 622 562 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.9 27.4 28.0 28.5 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.8 30.2 31.0 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 66.7 66.8 66.8 66.9 67.0 67.1 67.6 68.3 69.3 70.4 71.3 71.6 71.7 HEAT CONTENT 46 39 29 23 18 19 18 21 22 19 16 17 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 591 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 20. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 24. 32. 39. 44. 47. 48. 48. 48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 23. 31. 37. 42. 45. 46. 47. 46. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/04/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.93 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.07 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.29 Scaled RI index= 4.64 Prob of RI= 22.8% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)