* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/04/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 80 81 83 82 78 74 68 63 59 55 53 V (KT) LAND 75 78 80 81 83 82 78 74 68 63 59 55 53 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 15 16 13 27 37 44 36 35 30 29 24 SHEAR DIR 352 359 331 333 305 278 273 269 252 241 231 244 242 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.6 26.8 26.5 25.9 25.2 24.1 24.2 23.3 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 146 141 137 127 124 118 112 104 104 99 94 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -55.5 -54.6 -55.8 -55.3 -55.1 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 10 9 6 3 3 1 1 1 2 2 500-300 MB RH 50 53 53 58 58 53 48 45 40 47 45 46 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 0 2 5 7 12 35 74 56 63 30 0 7 850 MB VORT -40 -36 -22 9 14 -4 29 8 -2 21 35 51 86 LAND (KM) 1610 1648 1541 1447 1353 1187 1055 897 802 804 893 1036 1192 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.7 31.7 32.7 33.6 35.4 37.2 38.7 40.0 41.0 41.8 42.5 43.3 LONG(DEG W) 55.9 56.1 56.3 56.4 56.4 55.6 53.7 51.6 49.4 46.9 44.2 41.4 38.7 HEAT CONTENT 20 11 13 14 13 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 12 CX,CY: -3/ 11 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 720 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 20 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -13. -19. -23. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 4. 0. -6. -11. -14. -18. -21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 3. -1. -7. -12. -16. -20. -22. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/04/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.64 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 70.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.39 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.82 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 4.75 Prob of RI= 27.4% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)