* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/04/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 56 62 67 71 72 72 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 56 62 67 71 72 72 70 SHEAR (KTS) 4 5 8 5 5 10 8 13 13 12 12 18 23 SHEAR DIR 62 300 305 331 260 254 207 237 243 252 251 264 250 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 160 159 157 154 152 152 154 155 154 151 145 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 500-300 MB RH 45 46 45 51 52 47 52 44 46 47 52 52 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -4 -6 -8 -4 -2 0 3 3 3 0 0 9 850 MB VORT 22 29 18 30 31 22 17 -16 5 -25 -5 -27 -10 LAND (KM) 851 909 967 1021 1075 1076 1025 976 894 783 653 537 456 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.3 27.8 28.4 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.5 30.3 31.4 33.1 LONG(DEG W) 66.5 66.5 66.4 66.5 66.6 67.0 67.6 68.5 69.8 71.0 72.0 72.4 71.8 HEAT CONTENT 38 31 27 23 22 19 18 21 22 19 17 20 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 560 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 24. 32. 39. 44. 47. 48. 48. 47. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 31. 37. 43. 46. 47. 47. 45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/04/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.18 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.31 Scaled RI index= 4.75 Prob of RI= 27.3% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)