* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/04/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 29 34 42 51 58 62 66 67 66 65 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 29 34 42 41 33 29 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 8 15 15 15 22 24 23 21 18 16 15 21 19 SHEAR DIR 185 210 230 215 206 217 203 227 201 235 231 245 243 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.2 29.9 29.6 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 162 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 10 8 9 6 6 5 7 5 8 500-300 MB RH 51 50 49 50 51 51 59 53 54 46 42 42 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 5 7 6 9 12 4 1 6 6 3 14 7 850 MB VORT 2 17 18 17 23 14 24 1 20 -5 7 1 31 LAND (KM) 199 183 167 139 111 43 -19 -78 -80 -110 -167 -217 -191 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.4 26.7 27.4 28.3 29.2 30.1 30.9 31.5 32.0 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 78.2 78.4 78.5 78.8 79.0 79.8 80.8 81.9 82.8 83.4 83.6 83.5 83.0 HEAT CONTENT 86 86 89 90 84 80 77 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 566 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 18 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 27. 34. 39. 43. 45. 45. 45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 14. 22. 31. 38. 42. 46. 47. 46. 45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/04/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 30.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.98 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 145.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.36 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.46 Scaled RI index= 4.74 Prob of RI= 27.1% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)