* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/04/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 40 47 52 54 52 50 47 45 42 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 40 47 52 54 52 50 47 45 42 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 11 7 7 8 9 7 11 7 15 14 18 SHEAR DIR 36 31 39 31 18 14 4 356 360 333 342 333 337 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 26.6 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 143 141 139 138 138 132 126 123 121 118 121 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 8 8 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 72 66 67 64 59 58 50 51 46 42 37 36 33 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 0 -1 0 0 2 0 -5 -7 -9 -2 850 MB VORT -17 -24 -27 -30 -31 -34 -24 -12 -33 -24 -36 -26 -32 LAND (KM) 481 524 561 629 713 812 931 1080 1269 1485 1683 1914 2170 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.6 18.8 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.8 108.0 109.3 110.5 113.1 116.0 118.8 121.9 125.1 128.1 131.0 134.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 554 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -5 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 21. 24. 25. 24. 21. 18. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 15. 22. 27. 29. 27. 25. 22. 20. 17. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/04/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.49 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.28 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 118.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.83 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.77 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.77 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.39 Scaled RI index= 4.16 Prob of RI= 30.6% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)