* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/05/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 81 84 85 85 82 80 75 72 69 66 63 V (KT) LAND 75 78 81 84 85 85 82 80 75 72 69 66 63 SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 12 14 15 26 32 30 29 28 31 26 23 SHEAR DIR 354 336 320 320 306 282 276 265 239 236 239 244 229 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.8 24.9 24.6 23.4 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 145 139 135 129 126 122 117 110 107 99 91 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -54.6 -55.1 -55.5 -55.2 -54.5 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 9 8 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 2 500-300 MB RH 50 51 57 58 58 52 46 46 45 41 36 40 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 3 4 6 2 16 50 17 -4 -11 -6 10 850 MB VORT -24 -17 18 26 30 36 58 69 45 76 108 123 125 LAND (KM) 1636 1545 1455 1389 1326 1222 1158 1023 892 842 890 994 1167 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.5 32.3 33.1 33.8 35.0 36.1 37.5 39.0 40.3 41.2 42.5 44.1 LONG(DEG W) 56.6 56.8 56.9 56.8 56.6 55.8 54.5 52.5 50.0 47.5 45.0 42.0 38.6 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 14 14 13 10 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 12 CX,CY: -4/ 11 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 738 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 14 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -12. -18. -22. -27. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 9. 8. 6. 4. 0. -2. -5. -7. -11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 7. 5. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/05/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 68.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.38 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.71 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.94 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.78 Scaled RI index= 5.07 Prob of RI= 39.1% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)