* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/05/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 49 56 61 65 66 66 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 49 56 61 65 66 66 63 SHEAR (KTS) 4 6 2 2 8 7 8 7 8 14 17 23 25 SHEAR DIR 297 321 335 258 264 251 209 237 264 273 286 289 280 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 159 159 157 155 155 155 154 152 146 141 137 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 12 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 500-300 MB RH 43 42 48 50 46 48 45 45 46 49 52 50 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -4 -5 -2 -2 -1 0 2 0 0 -9 -8 0 850 MB VORT 29 16 29 28 18 1 -1 -17 -19 -39 -46 -64 -85 LAND (KM) 906 969 1033 1073 1113 1121 1093 1026 1007 912 808 737 761 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.8 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.8 29.3 30.4 31.6 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 66.4 66.4 66.3 66.2 66.1 66.4 66.7 67.6 68.5 69.3 69.6 69.4 68.2 HEAT CONTENT 32 27 24 25 26 23 22 16 21 23 17 14 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 588 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 22. 21. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 18. 26. 32. 37. 41. 42. 42. 40. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 31. 36. 40. 41. 41. 38. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/05/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.95 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.79 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.69 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.13 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 4.58 Prob of RI= 21.4% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)