* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/05/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 43 52 56 58 63 64 66 67 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 29 27 33 36 40 42 43 45 SHEAR (KTS) 15 14 14 22 22 20 21 10 12 6 9 5 7 SHEAR DIR 214 230 206 204 214 211 217 240 224 238 223 220 203 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -54.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 8 9 6 7 5 8 6 10 500-300 MB RH 47 45 49 48 49 52 48 45 41 36 31 32 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 7 6 8 9 10 4 3 4 1 2 2 3 850 MB VORT 23 20 16 22 33 22 14 2 -1 -1 -3 -11 -20 LAND (KM) 190 148 107 59 12 -82 -33 29 35 53 49 40 36 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.7 27.5 28.4 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 78.3 78.7 79.1 79.6 80.0 81.2 82.3 83.2 83.7 84.1 84.4 85.0 85.7 HEAT CONTENT 79 88 96 91 83 9999 9999 17 18 18 18 21 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 220/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 561 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 17. 22. 25. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 33. 38. 43. 45. 47. 49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 32. 36. 38. 43. 44. 46. 47. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/05/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.63 SST (C) : Value: 30.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.99 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 145.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.53 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 4.94 Prob of RI= 34.8% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)