* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/05/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 47 52 53 51 48 44 42 37 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 47 52 53 51 48 44 42 37 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 10 10 8 7 6 11 10 18 19 17 28 SHEAR DIR 21 19 18 13 24 354 14 351 350 335 336 316 284 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.0 25.9 25.5 25.5 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 141 140 138 139 137 133 126 125 121 121 118 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 69 65 65 61 55 56 51 47 39 39 33 38 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0 1 -3 -17 -9 -4 1 850 MB VORT -32 -34 -37 -43 -46 -38 -18 -16 -18 -22 -11 -2 1 LAND (KM) 505 544 584 666 759 844 982 1158 1375 1603 1846 2121 1914 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.0 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.1 107.4 108.6 109.9 111.1 113.8 116.7 119.7 123.1 126.5 129.9 133.4 136.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 628 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 4 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 19. 22. 22. 20. 17. 14. 10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 27. 28. 26. 23. 19. 17. 12. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/05/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.24 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 117.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.75 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.65 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 4.22 Prob of RI= 31.7% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)