* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/05/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 84 84 84 82 78 76 73 71 69 66 63 V (KT) LAND 80 82 84 84 84 82 78 76 73 71 69 66 63 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 12 16 21 33 34 29 28 31 30 28 28 SHEAR DIR 347 336 315 298 299 266 273 252 234 235 249 250 233 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.5 26.1 26.0 25.1 24.2 23.1 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 143 139 134 127 124 120 119 111 104 98 91 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.9 -53.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -54.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 7 7 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 500-300 MB RH 51 58 60 60 55 51 50 48 43 36 43 50 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 4 5 4 0 3 50 10 9 -19 -15 -8 -2 850 MB VORT -17 13 43 45 25 68 63 78 90 121 133 139 143 LAND (KM) 1593 1519 1445 1392 1329 1209 1133 1014 938 920 966 1111 1331 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.7 32.4 33.2 33.9 35.4 36.5 37.7 38.9 40.1 41.4 42.7 43.9 LONG(DEG W) 56.9 56.9 56.9 56.5 56.1 55.0 53.2 51.0 48.7 46.2 43.5 40.2 36.5 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 14 14 12 11 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 632 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 38 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -12. -18. -24. -29. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 3. 5. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/05/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 63.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.33 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.69 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.69 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 4.43 Prob of RI= 17.6% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)