* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/05/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 46 53 57 61 62 63 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 46 53 57 61 62 63 59 SHEAR (KTS) 6 2 5 9 11 10 15 13 19 20 25 28 34 SHEAR DIR 317 309 222 240 255 212 244 238 258 266 278 269 269 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 155 155 154 154 154 157 155 152 148 145 138 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 500-300 MB RH 45 48 52 50 47 53 47 53 53 49 44 49 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -6 -3 -2 -2 2 4 2 -2 -4 -6 8 0 850 MB VORT 20 21 23 15 3 28 -25 13 -2 14 -24 -42 -61 LAND (KM) 950 994 1039 1049 1055 1006 951 885 786 672 578 511 588 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.4 30.3 31.4 32.6 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 66.9 67.0 67.1 67.4 67.6 68.3 69.2 70.2 71.1 71.7 71.8 71.5 69.8 HEAT CONTENT 24 20 18 17 17 21 23 20 20 16 21 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 686 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -16 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 17. 19. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 17. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 30. 34. 38. 39. 38. 37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 21. 28. 32. 36. 37. 38. 34. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/05/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.77 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.96 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.67 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 4.36 Prob of RI= 16.1% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)