* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/05/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 47 53 58 63 66 69 70 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 24 25 26 36 42 47 52 55 58 60 SHEAR (KTS) 16 13 21 25 22 21 14 6 5 5 3 3 2 SHEAR DIR 231 215 208 219 227 210 252 220 260 224 273 221 252 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.9 30.8 30.8 30.9 31.0 31.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 8 7 9 8 10 9 500-300 MB RH 47 50 52 52 50 52 47 44 38 31 31 31 33 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 5 6 6 10 3 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 850 MB VORT 16 8 19 31 16 24 -2 14 -17 -5 -18 -20 -47 LAND (KM) 151 94 37 -29 -90 0 121 125 107 154 191 110 58 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.7 27.4 28.1 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 78.7 79.3 79.8 80.5 81.1 82.6 84.0 85.1 85.8 86.5 87.4 88.4 89.5 HEAT CONTENT 75 99 97 9999 9999 22 34 33 38 50 59 57 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 245/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 600 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 14. 18. 23. 26. 30. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 19. 27. 34. 38. 44. 47. 50. 53. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 27. 33. 38. 43. 46. 49. 50. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/05/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.57 SST (C) : Value: 30.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 145.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.02 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 4.42 Prob of RI= 17.4% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)