* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/05/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 41 45 46 45 43 40 37 32 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 41 45 46 45 43 40 37 32 SHEAR (KTS) 14 12 13 11 8 11 9 12 12 19 16 17 25 SHEAR DIR 27 19 23 42 25 15 9 13 335 343 342 311 283 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.2 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.8 25.4 25.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 140 138 138 139 135 130 125 124 120 119 115 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 65 62 63 59 59 54 51 42 38 32 33 32 33 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 -1 -9 -9 -9 0 -8 850 MB VORT -38 -44 -46 -47 -49 -42 -24 -29 -24 -28 -10 -12 3 LAND (KM) 590 621 677 759 793 882 1047 1228 1463 1688 1953 2085 1778 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.4 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.7 109.9 111.1 112.3 115.0 117.8 121.0 124.2 127.7 131.3 134.9 137.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 602 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 14 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 18. 17. 14. 12. 9. 5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 16. 20. 21. 20. 18. 15. 12. 7. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/05/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.38 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.19 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.07 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.38 Scaled RI index= 3.23 Prob of RI= 13.3% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)