* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/05/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 82 81 80 74 70 65 62 59 57 53 50 V (KT) LAND 80 81 82 81 80 74 70 65 62 59 57 53 50 SHEAR (KTS) 15 16 19 22 29 40 38 30 30 31 30 31 24 SHEAR DIR 340 334 315 301 289 274 263 257 243 247 255 247 237 SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.1 23.6 22.3 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 139 135 131 127 123 118 117 115 111 100 93 87 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -55.0 -54.2 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 7 6 5 3 2 2 3 2 2 1 500-300 MB RH 53 58 59 55 55 49 48 43 32 37 52 53 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 1 0 6 31 61 29 -7 -5 -3 4 9 850 MB VORT 1 20 28 18 30 51 49 48 59 86 114 112 106 LAND (KM) 1552 1480 1411 1337 1266 1166 1041 961 917 951 1126 1309 1483 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.3 33.1 34.0 34.8 36.2 37.4 38.4 39.3 40.4 41.7 43.2 44.9 LONG(DEG W) 56.7 56.5 56.2 55.7 55.1 53.4 51.5 49.8 48.1 45.1 40.8 37.2 33.9 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 14 11 10 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 629 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 40 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -23. -29. -35. -40. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -5. -3. 1. 3. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -15. -18. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -25. -28. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 1. 0. -6. -10. -15. -18. -21. -23. -27. -30. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/05/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 55.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.26 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.90 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.73 Scaled RI index= 4.46 Prob of RI= 18.4% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)