* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/05/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 49 55 59 63 64 65 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 49 55 59 63 64 65 61 SHEAR (KTS) 1 6 10 12 7 15 15 21 18 18 15 26 27 SHEAR DIR 198 205 235 249 229 217 232 235 250 256 265 267 282 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 157 155 155 155 157 157 157 157 159 155 152 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 500-300 MB RH 46 51 51 48 53 51 51 50 44 39 38 43 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -2 0 0 0 2 3 -2 0 -7 -1 11 2 850 MB VORT 26 30 26 15 23 24 8 32 21 -20 -48 -71 -86 LAND (KM) 999 1020 1042 1002 963 907 845 774 698 616 536 429 376 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.5 30.0 30.5 31.4 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 67.4 67.7 67.9 68.4 68.8 69.6 70.7 71.6 72.5 73.2 73.9 74.3 73.9 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 18 21 23 22 20 22 24 27 30 23 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 690 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 26. 32. 36. 40. 41. 40. 38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 30. 34. 38. 39. 40. 36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/05/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.77 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.96 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 4.54 Prob of RI= 20.3% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)