* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/05/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 39 45 51 54 55 56 58 58 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 15 20 23 19 19 20 8 10 7 9 3 9 5 SHEAR DIR 213 204 215 225 215 224 261 257 293 267 234 227 205 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 162 160 160 162 160 160 159 155 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -53.6 -53.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.7 -53.3 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 8 9 7 9 7 9 7 10 7 500-300 MB RH 48 51 49 47 50 47 47 39 36 33 33 28 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 10 8 8 6 3 4 6 6 6 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 15 17 30 25 23 10 -8 -17 -34 -23 -23 -17 -43 LAND (KM) 151 113 75 26 -10 -53 -78 -57 -29 0 39 -27 -47 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.8 27.2 28.0 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 30.1 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 78.7 79.1 79.4 79.9 80.3 81.1 81.8 82.2 82.6 83.2 84.0 84.8 85.7 HEAT CONTENT 75 96 94 83 83 9999 9999 9999 9999 18 16 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 613 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 4 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 13. 17. 19. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 28. 32. 36. 37. 39. 40. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 25. 31. 34. 35. 36. 38. 38. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/05/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.59 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 144.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.47 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.12 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 4.17 Prob of RI= 13.8% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)