* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/05/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 46 48 48 46 45 43 39 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 46 48 48 46 45 43 39 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 11 9 8 10 11 12 17 14 15 20 19 SHEAR DIR 15 17 33 38 26 20 5 6 349 352 325 307 295 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 148 147 146 144 140 131 132 133 132 130 123 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 500-300 MB RH 64 60 59 60 59 49 48 41 40 34 33 33 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 -7 -8 -2 -2 -7 850 MB VORT -40 -49 -52 -52 -53 -46 -38 -27 -23 -32 -11 6 24 LAND (KM) 664 719 789 831 859 977 1174 1391 1641 1913 2210 1881 1526 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.2 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.4 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.9 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 110.1 111.3 112.5 113.7 116.3 119.3 122.6 125.9 129.6 133.3 137.0 140.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 572 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 1 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 20. 20. 19. 17. 15. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 21. 23. 23. 21. 20. 18. 14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/05/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.43 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.45 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 124.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.89 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.83 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.14 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 3.60 Prob of RI= 20.1% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)